I Am Complete

FINALLY, my NHL08 math project is done. As I stated earlier, I had xbox issues, but they were resolved and I ran the rest of the numbers. What follows are my results for the Washington/Phoenix and St. Louis/Chicago teams. If you're interested in the process, look back a few posts at the original, but a quick recap is that I took Average TOI and compared it with player skill to determine a team's effective skill level.

We'll start with the Washington Wiseguys:

Ovechkin(93) - Fedorov(89) - Doan(86)
Semin(85) - Nylander(84) - Clark(81)
Mueller(79) - Reinprecht(84) - Gordon(78)
Carcillo(68) - Turris(76) - Hanzal(73)
Jovanovski(86) - Morris(79)
Green(77) - Morrisonn(76)
Michalek(73) - Schultz(75)
Bryzgalov(85)
Johnson(77)

And now the St. Louis Winterhawks:

Kariya(89) - Lang(84) - Sharp(81)
Havlat(87) - Toews(84) - Kane(82)
Perron(70) - King(71) - Hinote(75)
Burish(70) - McClement(73) - Janssen(69)
Campbell(85) - Brewer(82)
Sopel(76) - Johnson(75)
Seabrook(79) - McKee(80)
Huet(83)
Legace(83)

Again, the normal calculations with TOI and skill level and what-not were run giving the following results over 4 games:

Wiseguys - Offense: Average - 81.5; Actual - 83.3655787
Wiseguys - Defense: Average - 77.66667; Actual - 78.65256944
Wiseguys - Total Defense: Average - 81.333335; Actual - 81.82628472

Winterhawks - Offense: Average - 77.91667; Actual - 80.73150463
Winterhawks - Defense: Average - 79.5; Actual - 80.12489583
Winterhawks - Total Defense: Average - 80.458335; Actual - 81.562447915

As you can see, the Winterhawks defense is better than anyone else's, but the Wiseguy's have some interesting numbers that may compete for top spot. And to save some scrolling and clicking, here are the numbers from the Firebirds and Generals (btw, the Buffalo Generals have officially been named the Cleveland Commandos):

Fire. - Offense: Average - 81.3333, Actual - 84.9400463
Fire. - Defense: Average - 75.1666, Actual - 77.1836805
Fire. - Total Defense: Average - 79.583333, Actual - 80.59184025

Gen. - Offense: Average - 78.41666, Actual - 80.7318287
Gen. - Defense: Average - 78.16666, Actual - 77.4599653
Gen. - Total Defense: Average - 84.083333, Actual - 83.72998265

Now to determine who matches up best against who. We'll take the Firebirds first against the Generals, Wiseguys, and Winterhawks, respectively:

Firebirds: 84.9400463 - 83.72998265 = 1.21006365
Generals: 80.7318287 - 80.59184025 = 0.13998845
1.21006365-0.13998845 = 1.0700752

Firebirds: 84.9400463 - 81.82628472 = 3.11376158
Wiseguys: 83.3655787 - 80.59184025 = 2.77373845
3.11376158 - 2.77373845 = 0.34002313

Firebirds: 84.9400463 - 81.562447915 = 3.377598385
Winterhawks: 80.73150463 - 80.59184025 = 0.13966438
3.377598385 - 0.13966438 = 3.237934005

As you can see, the Firebirds beat out each team and therefore must be the best team of the four. But, let's not stop there. Now to figure out who is 2nd, 3rd, and worst.

Generals: 80.7318287 - 81.82628472 = -1.09445602
Wiseguys: 83.3655787 - 83.72998265 = -0.36440395
-1.09445602 - -0.36440395 = -0.73005207

(The negative number simply means that the Wiseguys are better than the Generals, but since I'm comparing the Generals to the Wiseguys, being worse will present negative numbers)

Generals: 80.7318287 - 81.562447915 = -0.830619215
Winterhawks: 80.73150463 - 83.72998265 = -2.99847802
-0.830619215 - -2.99847802 = 2.167858805

Here we find that the Generals are not the worst team since they beat out the Winterhawks, which puts the Winterhawks on a dangerous precipice.

Now comes a breaking moment. The Wiseguys are 1-1 in matchups, while the Winterhawks are a sore 0-2. No matter the outcome the Winterhawks will get last place since the best they can do is tie the Generals. And since the Generals defeated them, they would lose the tie-breaker, but it would save some humilation being defaulted to worst. Likewise, the worst the Wiseguys could do is be defaulted to 2nd place, but they'd like to win it fairly and unquestionably.

Wiseguys: 83.3655787 - 81.562447915 = 1.803130785
Winterhawks: 80.73150463 - 81.82628472 = -1.09478009
1.803130785 - -1.09478009 = 2.897910875

And the Wiseguys win in decisive fashion over the Winterhawks. the finals rankings are as follows:

Flint Firebirds
Washington Wiseguys
Buffalo Generals (a.k.a. Cleveland Commandos)
St. Louis Winterhawks

First off, BOOYAH BITCHES!

Secondly, it is worth noting a few things. This system is not exactly flawless, but it works pretty well. A way to manipulate the system is to put your higher rated guys on the highest lines and work down, ignoring chemistry and true position. Also, it does not factor in fatigue. So Crosby playing 60 min is more beneficial to my team, but not in reality as he would be dead on the ice. This system also reflects the skill of a computer controlled team. A real person's skill of the game cannot be factored this way.

Keep in mind these are NHL08 ratings as of April 11 or something. When NHL09 is released on Sept. 9, I will run the simulations again and re-calculate. I am sure there will be some roster and line changes, so I will re-post the teams.

Despite the flaws in the system, it is worthy enough to grant bragging rights. So therefore, I am the best GM of my three friends and me.