Sabbattical (or however the hell you spell it)

Due to my recent return to college, the number of posts in this blog will and have decreased drastically. It was a nice summer project and fun to do, but I just don't have time or am not willing to give up the time I have. Also, with the addition of my Senior IS, time will eventually run short. I thank all approximately 8 of you for reading along, and I will return someday.

Grinding it out until NHL09

So I've decided on a project to do until NHL09 comes out and my life disappears. I have to give props to Michael Jerb for igniting my idea spark. It all started at a fantasy football draft and Jerb mentioned something about going to nerdhl to check out something or other fantasy. I instantly thought to do a fantasy post. (In case that word isn't drilled inside your head - fantasy, fantasy, fantasy, fantasy - Webster needs to come up with synonyms for Fantasy sports). I will try to rate the players for the upcoming season based on the last 2 seasons points per game, as well as compare their linemates. The linemates thing will be a little rough since they aren't on lines yet and people traded to different teams will be a little risky to just throw them on a line, but as I only think I'll do the top 100 or so, I'll just use my best judgement.

This post will probably take the rest of the summer until I return to school and maybe even more time, so don't expect it tomorrow, but I'll try to keep everyone updated on its progress.

If you have any specific stats you'd like to see, let me know. I'll be using the Yahoo! Sports Fantasy Hockey base stats for my rankings. These are as follows:
Skaters - Goals, Assists, Shots, PPP, +/-, PIMS, SHG, GWG
Goalies - W, SV%, GAA, Shutouts

I'll make a different list for goalies and skaters as I don't think I'll have time to calculate where each goalie would fit into the master list.

Bored in the USA

Summer sucks...

Not much hockey to talk about. A couple recent signings in Clowe back to SJ and Steckel with a 1-yr extension in Washington. The Ivan Hlinka U-18 tournament is starting Tuesday and Canada will probably win it. Good old Petr Nedved has a tryout with the Rangers, Sundin still hasn't decided and the Toronto and Montreal medias will not let the thing rest until it's official. I mean, seriously, who cares until he decides?

Speaking of frustration, few things arise my ire more than when NHL08 cheats for the computer. By cheats I mean, the computer holds the puck in my zone for 7 min, their guys CANNOT be checked, nor pokechecked, and even if they do stumble, there's 2 guys on their team right there to get the puck. Now I have pretty fast fingers and can switch guys and poke with good enough speed, but when their passing the puck around is faster than possible for me to change guys and play defense - THAT is cheating. The worst part about it is that I KNOW I'm going to get scored on, but I still have to futilely try to defend and the moment I slip - Goal.

Anyway, that's how boring summer is, as any hockey fan knows.

I'm taking ideas for math projects, so if there's something you'd think to see, post in the comments section and I'll see what I can do.

I Am Complete

FINALLY, my NHL08 math project is done. As I stated earlier, I had xbox issues, but they were resolved and I ran the rest of the numbers. What follows are my results for the Washington/Phoenix and St. Louis/Chicago teams. If you're interested in the process, look back a few posts at the original, but a quick recap is that I took Average TOI and compared it with player skill to determine a team's effective skill level.

We'll start with the Washington Wiseguys:

Ovechkin(93) - Fedorov(89) - Doan(86)
Semin(85) - Nylander(84) - Clark(81)
Mueller(79) - Reinprecht(84) - Gordon(78)
Carcillo(68) - Turris(76) - Hanzal(73)
Jovanovski(86) - Morris(79)
Green(77) - Morrisonn(76)
Michalek(73) - Schultz(75)
Bryzgalov(85)
Johnson(77)

And now the St. Louis Winterhawks:

Kariya(89) - Lang(84) - Sharp(81)
Havlat(87) - Toews(84) - Kane(82)
Perron(70) - King(71) - Hinote(75)
Burish(70) - McClement(73) - Janssen(69)
Campbell(85) - Brewer(82)
Sopel(76) - Johnson(75)
Seabrook(79) - McKee(80)
Huet(83)
Legace(83)

Again, the normal calculations with TOI and skill level and what-not were run giving the following results over 4 games:

Wiseguys - Offense: Average - 81.5; Actual - 83.3655787
Wiseguys - Defense: Average - 77.66667; Actual - 78.65256944
Wiseguys - Total Defense: Average - 81.333335; Actual - 81.82628472

Winterhawks - Offense: Average - 77.91667; Actual - 80.73150463
Winterhawks - Defense: Average - 79.5; Actual - 80.12489583
Winterhawks - Total Defense: Average - 80.458335; Actual - 81.562447915

As you can see, the Winterhawks defense is better than anyone else's, but the Wiseguy's have some interesting numbers that may compete for top spot. And to save some scrolling and clicking, here are the numbers from the Firebirds and Generals (btw, the Buffalo Generals have officially been named the Cleveland Commandos):

Fire. - Offense: Average - 81.3333, Actual - 84.9400463
Fire. - Defense: Average - 75.1666, Actual - 77.1836805
Fire. - Total Defense: Average - 79.583333, Actual - 80.59184025

Gen. - Offense: Average - 78.41666, Actual - 80.7318287
Gen. - Defense: Average - 78.16666, Actual - 77.4599653
Gen. - Total Defense: Average - 84.083333, Actual - 83.72998265

Now to determine who matches up best against who. We'll take the Firebirds first against the Generals, Wiseguys, and Winterhawks, respectively:

Firebirds: 84.9400463 - 83.72998265 = 1.21006365
Generals: 80.7318287 - 80.59184025 = 0.13998845
1.21006365-0.13998845 = 1.0700752

Firebirds: 84.9400463 - 81.82628472 = 3.11376158
Wiseguys: 83.3655787 - 80.59184025 = 2.77373845
3.11376158 - 2.77373845 = 0.34002313

Firebirds: 84.9400463 - 81.562447915 = 3.377598385
Winterhawks: 80.73150463 - 80.59184025 = 0.13966438
3.377598385 - 0.13966438 = 3.237934005

As you can see, the Firebirds beat out each team and therefore must be the best team of the four. But, let's not stop there. Now to figure out who is 2nd, 3rd, and worst.

Generals: 80.7318287 - 81.82628472 = -1.09445602
Wiseguys: 83.3655787 - 83.72998265 = -0.36440395
-1.09445602 - -0.36440395 = -0.73005207

(The negative number simply means that the Wiseguys are better than the Generals, but since I'm comparing the Generals to the Wiseguys, being worse will present negative numbers)

Generals: 80.7318287 - 81.562447915 = -0.830619215
Winterhawks: 80.73150463 - 83.72998265 = -2.99847802
-0.830619215 - -2.99847802 = 2.167858805

Here we find that the Generals are not the worst team since they beat out the Winterhawks, which puts the Winterhawks on a dangerous precipice.

Now comes a breaking moment. The Wiseguys are 1-1 in matchups, while the Winterhawks are a sore 0-2. No matter the outcome the Winterhawks will get last place since the best they can do is tie the Generals. And since the Generals defeated them, they would lose the tie-breaker, but it would save some humilation being defaulted to worst. Likewise, the worst the Wiseguys could do is be defaulted to 2nd place, but they'd like to win it fairly and unquestionably.

Wiseguys: 83.3655787 - 81.562447915 = 1.803130785
Winterhawks: 80.73150463 - 81.82628472 = -1.09478009
1.803130785 - -1.09478009 = 2.897910875

And the Wiseguys win in decisive fashion over the Winterhawks. the finals rankings are as follows:

Flint Firebirds
Washington Wiseguys
Buffalo Generals (a.k.a. Cleveland Commandos)
St. Louis Winterhawks

First off, BOOYAH BITCHES!

Secondly, it is worth noting a few things. This system is not exactly flawless, but it works pretty well. A way to manipulate the system is to put your higher rated guys on the highest lines and work down, ignoring chemistry and true position. Also, it does not factor in fatigue. So Crosby playing 60 min is more beneficial to my team, but not in reality as he would be dead on the ice. This system also reflects the skill of a computer controlled team. A real person's skill of the game cannot be factored this way.

Keep in mind these are NHL08 ratings as of April 11 or something. When NHL09 is released on Sept. 9, I will run the simulations again and re-calculate. I am sure there will be some roster and line changes, so I will re-post the teams.

Despite the flaws in the system, it is worthy enough to grant bragging rights. So therefore, I am the best GM of my three friends and me.

City Xbox

Ok, I know I promised the rest of the results a couple days ago, but my 360 decided to take a massive crap on itself. The CD-Tray would either get stuck, or not read the disc. Add my not having much free time over the last few days, and you get delays. However, I am happy to report that I have fixed my 360 (hopefully for good) and will have the rest of the results up tonight as I am not turning it off until I am done.

Stay tuned.

On a side note, anyone fixing their Xbox, get the toolkit off microsoft. True, it's nice to get that feeling of being a badass by using a pocketknife and other assorted tools to open the sucker up, but I'd rather be able to do it in like 1 minute.

Back in the Saddle Again

First off, my apologies on the delay between posts. Not only have I been very busy, but my xbox CD-Tray decided to turtle itself into the frame and not come out. Unfortunately, my NHL08 was not in there, so I could not complete my simulations. However, after taking the whole thing apart and messing around with the CD-Tray like a drunk girl at a party, I have resolved the issue and will have the St. Louis and Washington hybrid teams up tomorrow.

In real hockey news, NHLPA Executive Director Paul Kelly had this to say about some potential locations for new hockey teams. http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=244291&lid=headline&lpos=topStory_nhl

I couldn't agree more, Canada is the first thing people think about when hearing the word "hockey." And now that the Canadian dollar is stronger than in the past, those teams can compete and stay alive. Plus, Winnipeg is still one of my favorite cities to say and should have a team.

This just in: Mats Sundin finally came to a choice over one of the hardest decisions in his life. He decided to go with an Egg McMuffin for breakfast instead of a Sausage Egg and Cheese McGriddle. I think it was a good move by him to stay classic and wish him and his family the best of luck in the future.

Killing time in the offseason

These are the worst months of anyone's life. Barring Draft Day and the first week of July, there is really nothing hockey fans have to be excited about. It's like a summer-long feeling of boredom similar to having everyone you've ever known out on vacation except you. To pass the time you rerun games in your head or scour Youtube for every hockey highlight reel, even the ones of like 6 year old kids their parents think are amazing.

This lad and his friends took a different approach. Three others and myself have decided that when NHL2009 releases on Sept. 9, we would all make hybrid teams. A hybrid team is a team that is comprised half of our favorite teams (in this case, Buffalo, Washington, St. Louis and Pittsburgh), and half of another team in the NHL that we like. My Buffalo friend chose Columbus, my Washington friend chose Phoenix, my St. Louis friend chose Chicago and I settled on Calgary. Why those three chose their teams is anyone's guess, but I have always had an affinity for Calgary as my Western Conference team of choice. Whether it's because Jarome Iginla is a beast, their color scheme was appealing to my eyes as a child, or deep down inside I am a homosexual and the idea of being a 'Flame' rests easy with me, I cannot say. But I sure hope it's because Jarome Iginla is a beast.

The rules of our little game were simple: 6 forwards from each team, 3 defenseman from each team, and a goalie from each team. Lines were allowed to be comprised however the GM fancied, but the team MUST be salary-cap compliant. And not the NHL08/NHL09 cap, the actual NHL cap hit for players(i.e. Malkin takes a cap hit of 3.834 million, not .984). Also, the most up-to-date roster is in effect.

My team(with ratings), which I created on NHL08 and named the Flint Firebirds:

Cammalleri(88) - Crosby(94) - Iginla(93)
Staal(82) - Malkin(91) - Langkow(86)
Pesonen(82) - Talbot(72) - Fedotenko(80)
Nystrom(69) - Prust(70) - Moss(75)
Gonchar(86) - Phaneuf(85)
Letang(72) - Eriksson(73)
Goligoski(69) - Baldwin(67)
Fleury(84)
McElhinney(71)

My Buffalo friend's team, which I named the Buffalo Generals is as follows:

Nash(85) - Roy(78) - Vanek(84)
Hecht(84) - Peca(86) - Pominville(79)
Huselius(79) - Umberger(75) - Afinogenov(84)
Boll(70) - Murray(69) - KALETA(68)
Commodore(80) - Spacek(86)
Rivet(81) - Tyutin(74)
Klesla(77) - Sekera(71)
Miller(90)
Norrena(78)

My Capital's and Blue's friends are still finalizing their teams and therefore will be posted later.

Obviously, some trash-talking occured over who's team was better. It was in agreement that my team was top-heavy, meaning my top two forward lines were amazing, as well as my top defensive pairing, but that the rest of my team was lacking. The Generals were seen as a deeper, more rounded team with a better defensive core. To solve this dilemma, I decided to undertake a project.

Simply taking the ratings of players and averaging them out doesn't really do the team justice. Therefore, I decided to run some simulations. For each team I did the following. I ran 4 CPU vs. CPU games against the Ottawa Senators on Superstar mode with 5 min periods. After each game, I recorded the TOI in seconds. Two games were played at home, and two were played away. Knowing that there are 3600 seconds in a 60-min hockey game (NHL08's TOI is tallied as if the game were a full 60-min game), I calculated that each second was worth .02777778% of the game's time. Next, I took each player's TOI and multiplied it by that percentage to see their time on ice relative to the maximum 100%. After obtaining this number, I then multiplied that number by the player's skill to evaluate their personal contribution on ice. For example, if a 90 rated player logged 20:00 of ice time in a game, then his number would be 30, since that's how good the team would be if he was the only one who ever went on the ice. After getting each player's "impact" number, I then added up the numbers of all the forwards and divided by 3, since there are 3 men on a line, and divided the defensemen's numbers by 2, 2 men each pairing. The result was a number constituting the average skill of any line/pairing during that game.

This process was repeated for all 4 games and then those final numbers were then averaged. Following will be 3 sets of numbers for the Firebirds and the Generals (Offense, Defense, Total Defense) with 2 numbers each - the average number of their skills, and my numbers("actual"). Total Defense was calculated by adding the Average and Actual numbers of the Defense and Goalie together and averaging.

Fire. - Offense: Average - 81.3333, Actual - 84.9400463
Fire. - Defense: Average - 75.1666, Actual - 77.1836805
Fire. - Total Defense: Average - 79.583333, Actual - 80.59184025

Gen. - Offense: Average - 78.41666, Actual - 80.7318287
Gen. - Defense: Average - 78.16666, Actual - 77.4599653
Gen. - Total Defense: Average - 84.083333, Actual - 83.72998265

As you can see, my offense is marginally better, our defenses are roughly the same, but his total defense is much better. To determine who has the better team, I then took each team's offensive number and subtracted the other team's Total Defense number from it. Whoever has the higher number after this procedure is the better team.

Firebirds - 84.9400463 - 83.72998265 = 1.21006365
Generals - 80.7318287 - 80.59184025 = 0.13998845

As the results show, my team is better by a skill of roughly 1.0700752. This really isn't too significant, but gives me enough to brag. Booyah!

Some suggestions for anyone interested in doing their own project similar to this one:
*For more accuracy, do full-length games and calculate the time spent on the PK. This time should be factored with each players PK TOI and then have the sum divided by 2 since only 2 forwards are on the ice for a PK.
*Run more games for a better balance of stats